A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
