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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still